Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210908 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.30     58.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.2  14.7  16.5  17.7  19.9  28.6  47.9  53.6  F  F  F  F  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  28.0  23.0  17.0  20.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  62.3  49.4   2.0 -47.7 -51.5  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  28.0  43.0  36.0  10.0  55.0  68.0 130.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  58.0  54.0  58.0  53.0  52.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0   2.0   9.0  32.0  11.0 -52.0 -73.0  F  F  N  U VU  U VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.8%        4.8%        5.8%
 25kt / 24h        7.1%       11.9%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        6.5%        8.1%        7.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.3%        8.1%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        8.1%        4.8%
 45kt / 36h       19.2%        3.1%       11.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%