Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210909 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.10     59.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.6  14.3  18.5  18.3  21.0  35.3  60.3  67.5  F  F  N  F  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  31.0  18.0  16.0  20.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  74.6  70.1  55.5 -26.5 -40.5 -42.9  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  43.0   4.0   4.0  82.0  38.0 129.0 143.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  55.0  54.0  57.0  50.0  53.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  12.0   7.0  13.0  37.0   4.0 -74.0  90.0  N  U  N  U VU  N VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        3.9%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.4%       10.4%        7.4%
 30kt / 24h        4.3%        7.1%        5.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.6%        7.1%        5.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        7.1%        3.9%
 45kt / 36h        7.6%        2.1%        4.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%