Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210909 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.20     60.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  18.2  16.8  18.8  22.8  42.5  62.1  58.3  F  F  F  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  19.0  13.0  20.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  74.6  67.9  61.5   9.8 -39.5 -42.0 -42.9  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  26.0  14.0  10.0  93.0  74.0 107.0  69.0  N  U  U  U  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  54.0  53.0  56.0  54.0  53.0  62.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   9.0  14.0  31.0  12.0  -9.0 -14.0-152.0  N  U  U VU  U  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        3.0%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%        7.7%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        4.9%        3.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%        4.9%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        4.9%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%        1.2%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%