Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210909 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.30     61.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  17.3  17.0  19.9  31.8  56.1  43.2  32.3  F  F  F  N  U VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  17.0  18.0  28.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.6  75.1  64.4  60.5 -21.5 -35.8 -38.2 -37.9  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  -3.0  -3.0  49.0  96.0 132.0  74.0  54.0  U  U  U  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  55.0  58.0  51.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  23.0  25.0  42.0  21.0 -39.0 -81.0 -52.0  N VU VU VU VU VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.7%        5.8%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h        6.3%       12.6%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        5.9%        8.9%        7.4%
 35kt / 24h        5.9%        8.9%        7.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        8.9%        5.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%