Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122021 210910 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.50     62.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  25.6  33.8  47.5  64.4  52.9  52.9  52.9  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.5  29.2 -19.4 -29.1 -32.3 -34.5 -34.5 -34.5  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  93.0  89.0  88.0 132.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  53.0  57.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -7.0  41.0 -18.0 -86.0-159.0-159.0-159.0  N  F VU VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        1.8%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons