Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132021 210908 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.40     86.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  30.5  34.2  40.7  40.5  50.2  55.0  49.4  N  N  U VU  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  30.0   4.0  33.0  54.0  18.0  21.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 124.6 124.6 130.0 120.1 117.9 120.1  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0 -11.0  31.0  39.0 -18.0   8.0 -21.0  14.0  U  U  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  58.0  53.0  45.0  43.0  40.0  38.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -4.0  -7.0  -5.0 -36.0 -21.0 -18.0   2.0  N  F  F  F VF VF VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        5.6%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h        6.1%       19.1%       12.6%
 30kt / 24h        3.7%        8.4%        6.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%        8.2%        6.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        8.2%        4.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%       17.1%        9.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.9%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        2.8%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.4%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%