Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132021 210909 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.50     85.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  33.0  40.8  47.9  45.1  59.8  48.6  31.8  N  U VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0   4.0  44.0  80.0  36.0  24.0  22.0  22.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 119.6 122.0 125.0 119.6 115.1 115.1 117.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0  24.0  10.0  -9.0   8.0   3.0   9.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  56.0  53.0  49.0  41.0  40.0  39.0  40.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0 -14.0 -10.0 -27.0 -32.0 -17.0  -6.0   3.0  N VF  F VF VF VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        2.3%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%        7.5%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        2.4%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        2.4%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.4%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        4.4%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%