Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132021 210909 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.50     83.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.9  43.6  49.9  50.1  53.1  56.9  48.0  30.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  21.0  29.0  58.0  19.0  25.0  20.0  20.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.3 127.0 130.0 130.0 122.3 117.9 120.1 122.3  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  29.0 -20.0 -16.0 -19.0 -32.0  11.0  10.0  U  N VU  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  53.0  49.0  42.0  38.0  37.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0 -11.0 -31.0 -51.0 -26.0 -16.0  -3.0   2.0 VF  F VF VF VF VF  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%