Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132021 210909 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.20     81.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.2  50.1  48.8  46.9  61.7  55.8  48.8  48.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  33.0  55.0  22.0  28.0  25.0  26.0  26.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 135.0 134.3 129.6 122.9 122.9 125.1 125.1  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0 -10.0  19.0 -11.0  -4.0  10.0  18.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  49.0  41.0  37.0  36.0  36.0  37.0  37.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -30.0 -54.0 -37.0 -29.0 -13.0  -2.0  -2.0  F VF VF VF VF VF  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%