Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142021 210912 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90     94.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  19.0  19.5  22.1  26.5  35.3  42.9  49.4  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  45.0  48.0  43.0  33.0  35.0  31.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   103.0  70.0  73.0  69.0  40.0  34.0  30.0  22.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  77.0  74.0  69.0  60.0  55.0  53.0  51.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   6.0   4.0   1.0  20.0  19.0  16.0   4.0  N  N  N  N VU VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        3.3%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h       13.5%       31.9%       22.7%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%       14.9%       10.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%       14.3%        8.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       14.3%        7.5%
 45kt / 36h        9.8%       36.5%       23.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       15.7%        7.8%
 55kt / 48h       11.3%       14.9%       13.1%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%        7.9%        6.3%
 65kt / 72h        7.4%        6.9%        7.1%