Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142021 210912 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30     95.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  23.9  26.3  29.3  42.1  44.2  55.3  53.2  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  40.0  32.0  35.0  40.0   4.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 115.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0 101.0  53.0  82.0  40.0  40.0  39.0  77.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  70.0  65.0  65.0  57.0  54.0  49.0  50.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   8.0   9.0  14.0  28.0  17.0  10.0   0.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        2.9%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h       11.2%       24.0%       17.6%
 30kt / 24h        4.4%       10.2%        7.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%        9.7%        6.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        9.7%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h        3.6%       15.8%        9.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.5%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        4.1%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%