Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142021 210913 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50     95.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  21.2  26.3  35.1  38.7  52.3  59.1  61.3  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  36.0  32.0  35.0  38.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  67.0  63.0  52.0  49.0  88.0  76.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  66.0  67.0  64.0  57.0  52.0  50.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   7.0  14.0  22.0  11.0  14.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  U VU  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.9%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        5.6%       15.0%       10.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        5.9%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        5.4%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        5.4%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%        9.5%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        2.9%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        0.8%        0.9%