Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142021 210913 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.10     96.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  31.4  38.0  37.7  46.3  54.4  56.4  58.5  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  34.0  39.0  38.0   4.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  48.0  53.0  68.0  92.0  88.0  24.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  61.0  54.0  55.0  51.0  51.0  41.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  15.0  32.0  27.0  13.0  12.0   0.0   0.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.1%        8.9%       12.0%
 25kt / 24h       21.0%       30.0%       25.5%
 30kt / 24h       13.5%       15.4%       14.4%
 35kt / 24h       11.8%       15.4%       13.6%
 40kt / 24h        6.3%       15.4%       10.9%
 45kt / 36h        6.6%       14.7%       10.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.1%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        2.5%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%