Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142021 210913 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.40     96.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  39.1  37.9  41.8  49.5  52.3  58.2  48.2  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  36.0  42.0  27.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   5.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 112.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  60.0  48.0  47.0  65.0  28.0  31.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  56.0  51.0  47.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  29.0  18.0   8.0  16.0   4.0   3.0   6.0 VU VU VU  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.7%        3.9%        5.8%
 25kt / 24h        9.2%       16.0%       12.6%
 30kt / 24h        5.4%        6.7%        6.0%
 35kt / 24h        4.7%        6.7%        5.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        6.7%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%        5.9%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%