Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142021 210913 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90     96.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.6  40.2  43.2  45.3  52.1  49.2  50.9  35.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  42.0  14.0   4.0   5.0   4.0   5.0   2.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 112.0 105.1  98.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  58.0  40.0  58.0  53.0  41.0  37.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  54.0  44.0  45.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.0  24.0  11.0  19.0  14.0   5.0   1.0   3.0 VU VU  U VU  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.8%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        3.7%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.1%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%