Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142021 210914 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10     96.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.8  45.5  45.5  49.3  51.2  51.6  46.4  36.4  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   5.0   5.0   2.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  82.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  28.0  50.0  73.0  23.0  64.0  32.0  20.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  52.0  48.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.0  15.0  15.0  18.0   6.0   0.0   3.0   4.0 VU  U  U VU  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.6%        2.0%        4.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%        6.0%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        2.3%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%        2.3%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        2.3%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%