Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142021 210914 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.80     95.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.2  45.3  48.3  52.3  47.6  58.4  46.1  38.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0   4.0   6.0   5.0   4.0   6.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  50.0  79.0  54.0  51.0  40.0  29.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  45.0  48.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  16.0  15.0   9.0   3.0   2.0   6.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.7%        2.5%        6.1%
 25kt / 24h        5.3%        6.7%        6.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%        2.8%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%        2.8%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        2.8%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%