Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142021 210914 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.40     95.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.7  48.1  52.0  52.1  50.7  51.8  45.2  45.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  82.0  51.0  37.0  70.0  -8.0  32.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  55.0  58.0  54.0  50.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  15.0  11.0   2.0   0.0   3.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%