Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142021 210914 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.50     94.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.7  52.0  50.5  47.9  55.1  47.4  43.6  43.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   6.0   4.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0  82.0  25.0  40.0   0.0  19.0 -15.0 -15.0  F  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  57.0  57.0  50.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  11.0   3.0   4.0   1.0   5.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%