Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142021 210916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.30     91.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.1  43.6  46.3  47.8  25.3  22.7  22.7  22.7 VU VU VU VU  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  35.0  21.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 137.3 137.3 137.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  32.0 -16.0  23.0   0.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   4.0  10.0   4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  U  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        1.4%        1.1%