Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142021 210917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.50     92.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.4  34.2  22.6  22.1  20.2  20.2  20.2  20.2 VU  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 149.3 137.9 121.6 121.6 121.6 121.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  -6.0   1.0  31.0 -40.0 -40.0 -40.0 -40.0  U  U  U  N VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  51.0  56.0  57.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0 VU  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   7.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.8%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%