Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142021 210917 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.40     93.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  19.8  23.4  23.2  23.2  23.2  23.2  23.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        142.3 129.4 123.5 118.0 118.0 118.0 118.0 118.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  16.0  26.0 -50.0 -50.0 -50.0 -50.0 -50.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%