Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142021 210917 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.90     92.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.4 119.8 119.8 119.8 119.8 119.8 119.8 119.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.8%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        0.8%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        0.9%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        3.0%        2.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons