Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152021 210918 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.30     71.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.3  46.7  47.0  50.7  54.1  42.7  37.0  50.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  19.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.4  96.2  81.5  78.6  63.2  32.3  21.3  13.8  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  82.0 104.0  48.0  58.0   8.0  20.0  18.0  F  N  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  43.0  36.0  27.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  10.0  13.0   8.0   4.0 -35.0 -61.0-108.0  U  U  U  U  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons