Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152021 210918 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.60     70.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.2  46.0  46.3  51.0  58.1  39.8  49.7  49.8 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.7  73.6  66.7  64.2  45.0  27.8  13.7  13.7  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0 117.0  77.0 106.0   7.0  67.0  19.0   8.0  F  F  N  F  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  58.0  59.0  48.0  39.0  38.0  29.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  14.0   6.0   4.0 -24.0 -44.0 -84.0-109.0  U  U  N  N VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons