Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152021 210918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.60     67.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        51.5  49.1  50.0  58.6  52.1  44.7  46.4  46.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         73.6  70.8  65.4  52.7  30.2  21.8  19.7  31.4  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   112.0  65.0 120.0  83.0   6.0  83.0  -6.0 -26.0  F  N  F  N  U  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  59.0  57.0  46.0  43.0  36.0  33.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.0  14.0   4.0  -4.0 -67.0 -52.0 -52.0 -61.0 VU  U  N  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons