Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152021 210921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     43.20     46.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        56.0  51.4  49.6  41.3  27.8  21.6  19.9  22.9 VU VU VU VU  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         39.7  49.3  44.8  38.7  34.1  19.6   5.9   0.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  68.0  28.0  27.0  -6.0  53.0 -23.0 -18.0  N  N  U  U  U  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  34.0  36.0  41.0  46.0  49.0  46.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -48.0 -44.0 -21.0   6.0   9.0  -9.0   1.0   2.0 VF VF VF  N  U  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons