Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152021 210921 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.20     43.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.5  41.0  30.3  19.7  21.3  26.6  28.9  36.8 VU VU  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.3  44.8  41.7  34.1  16.7   5.0   0.3  -3.8  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -21.0  33.0  39.0   1.0  31.0   3.0  -8.0  23.0 VU  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  40.0  45.0  48.0  50.0  48.0  53.0  47.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0   1.0   9.0   1.0  -8.0   7.0 -14.0 -37.0  F  N  U  N  F  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons