Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152021 210921 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.70     41.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.9  34.5  25.7  26.8  24.3  22.2  30.6  37.4  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.7  42.8  38.3  30.4  27.7  31.9  46.7  44.7  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0  40.0   4.0 -11.0  46.0  15.0 -43.0  -3.0  U  N  U  U  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  45.0  48.0  48.0  46.0  40.0  47.0  49.0 VU VU  U  U VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0   0.0  -8.0  -5.0  -3.0   2.0   5.0   5.0 VF  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons