Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152021 210922 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.30     39.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  16.8  17.0  15.3  15.9  26.0  55.7  68.7  N  F  F  F  F  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         41.8  35.8  26.4  18.7   8.4   1.5   1.5   1.4  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0   0.0 -31.0  11.0   0.0  30.0  32.0 -38.0  N  U VU  U  U  N  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  47.0  48.0  50.0  50.0  54.0  47.0  58.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  -2.0  -1.0   4.0   7.0 -33.0 -44.0  61.0  U  N  N  N  N VF VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons