Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152021 210922 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     42.20     39.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  14.3  14.6  13.9  22.6  40.6  37.8  36.4  N  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.0  28.4  23.4  17.7  12.3  14.7  19.6  19.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -33.0  11.0  43.0  -2.0  57.0 -21.0 -24.0  -5.0 VU  U  N  U  N VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  44.0  45.0  44.0  43.0  48.0  45.0  41.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0   0.0   3.0   7.0  -1.0 -46.0-119.0  N  F  N  N  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons