Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152021 210922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     43.30     40.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  14.4  14.9  14.0  34.1  39.8  32.5  28.2  F  F  F  F  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.4  28.4  23.7  19.7  18.5  25.7  29.6  31.4  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  33.0 -12.0  41.0  14.0   3.0 -18.0 -30.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  43.0  42.0  39.0  46.0  45.0  42.0  39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0   2.0  13.0   1.0 -26.0 -48.0 -92.0  F  N  N  U  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons