Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152021 210923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     44.10     41.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  14.1  11.8  21.9  37.7  43.1  30.9  27.8  F  F  F  N  U VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.8  26.2  23.7  22.7  28.4  39.2  46.8  58.2 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0   3.0  14.0  28.0  -7.0 -61.0  -5.0 -31.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  41.0  38.0  42.0  47.0  42.0  36.0  34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   4.0   8.0   6.0  -4.0 -17.0 -35.0 -24.0  N  N  U  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons