Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152021 210923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     44.20     41.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  13.6  23.8  36.9  47.5  48.1  30.3  30.4  F  F  N  U VU VU  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         34.7  31.4  30.2  32.1  39.2  45.9  57.0  65.4 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0 -19.0  23.0  15.0  14.0 -15.0  -1.0  -5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  37.0  38.0  43.0  44.0  38.0  35.0  33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   6.0   7.0   4.0  -1.0  -6.0 -21.0 -16.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons