Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210919 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     52.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  28.3  27.1  36.7  42.7  39.2  40.1  36.3  N  N  N  U VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  33.0  45.0  63.0  47.0  43.0  45.0  65.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  43.0  39.0  53.0 -40.0   8.0  41.0  31.0  N  N  N  N VU  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  50.0  52.0  55.0  57.0  58.0  57.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   2.0  -7.0  -9.0  -6.0  -9.0  -4.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        8.7%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.5%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.6%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        4.5%        3.4%        4.0%