Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210919 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60     52.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  24.9  29.4  38.2  37.4  44.2  32.7  38.9  N  N  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  42.0  64.0  66.0  40.0  36.0  49.0  55.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  50.0  73.0   3.0  -2.0 -27.0  35.0  45.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  55.0  57.0  59.0  56.0  58.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   0.0  -6.0  -5.0  -2.0  -6.0   2.0  -3.0  U  N  F  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.7%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%       12.7%        8.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        4.6%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        4.2%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        4.2%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%        9.5%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        3.6%        3.4%