Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40     55.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  34.1  41.3  41.3  42.2  39.5  37.5  40.6  N  U VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  59.0  50.0  47.0  40.0  47.0  66.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  75.0  14.0 -32.0 -36.0  13.0  64.0  32.0  N  N  U VU VU  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  F  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        1.6%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        6.5%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        1.7%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        1.6%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        1.6%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        4.1%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        1.6%        1.6%