Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210919 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20     57.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.4  43.4  44.0  39.5  42.7  34.2  40.2  43.5  U VU VU  U VU  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  44.0  45.0  43.0  45.0  73.0  63.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  14.0  -6.0 -23.0 -16.0  46.0  33.0  23.0  N  U  U VU  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  54.0  57.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -7.0  -8.0  -2.0  -7.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        0.7%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.4%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        0.8%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        0.8%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        1.1%        1.1%