Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50     58.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.1  43.5  35.4  39.9  38.1  36.7  38.4  43.7 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  44.0  43.0  41.0  58.0  76.0  64.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0  14.0   7.0 -12.0  34.0   3.0  14.0 -20.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  54.0  58.0  60.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -11.0  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.0%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        0.8%        0.9%