Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210920 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90     58.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.5  36.4  40.2  43.5  36.0  39.8  40.2  31.4 VU  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  44.0  41.0  43.0  70.0  78.0  60.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0 -16.0 -19.0  -6.0  69.0 -11.0 -11.0 -22.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  53.0  52.0  55.0  57.0  60.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0   1.0  -4.0   3.0   4.0  F  N  N  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        0.6%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.8%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%