Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210920 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30     60.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.0  40.2  45.1  41.9  37.6  37.0  41.7  30.1  U  U VU VU  U  U VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  39.0  41.0  52.0  85.0  72.0  50.0  44.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0 -25.0 -11.0   0.0  23.0   2.0  15.0 -13.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  54.0  58.0  62.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -6.0  -5.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        0.5%        0.4%