Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210920 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     61.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.1  45.4  40.4  38.2  40.8  44.6  37.7  27.8 VU VU  U  U VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  40.0  51.0  67.0  84.0  60.0  45.0  43.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0 -25.0  -5.0  52.0  17.0  22.0 -25.0   5.0  U VU  U  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  50.0  53.0  56.0  57.0  61.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -8.0  -5.0   0.0  -4.0   2.0   3.0   5.0  N  F  F  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.5%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%