Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     62.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.1  40.4  37.0  39.7  36.2  44.5  31.2  22.5 VU  U  U  U  U VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  45.0  57.0  75.0  86.0  59.0  45.0  43.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0   3.0  48.0  22.0  12.0  51.0 -18.0 -35.0 VU  U  N  U  U  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  52.0  52.0  56.0  56.0  54.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -8.0  -1.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.1%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        1.1%        1.5%