Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210921 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     64.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.0  38.4  41.3  38.0  40.3  33.1  18.7  18.2  U  U VU  U  U  U  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  73.0  89.0  96.0  80.0  55.0  48.0  43.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  22.0 -12.0  19.0  25.0  13.0 -23.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  54.0  55.0  57.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        9.5%        1.4%        5.5%