Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210921 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30     64.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.1  40.5  39.2  39.7  41.7  28.8  24.2  16.3  U  U  U  U VU  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  89.0  92.0  89.0  66.0  53.0  51.0  45.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  -8.0  32.0  39.0  -6.0   2.0 -30.0  20.0  U  U  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  54.0  56.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -1.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   3.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h       10.2%        2.0%        6.1%