Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210922 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60     65.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.9  36.4  39.9  42.8  37.2  25.6  24.9  15.9  U  U  U VU  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0  85.0  85.0  80.0  60.0  57.0  49.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0   7.0  33.0  33.0  -4.0  -6.0 -27.0  34.0  U  U  N  N  U  U VU  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.7%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h       10.7%        3.8%        7.3%