Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210922 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20     65.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.9  39.9  41.4  42.4  34.2  29.2  23.3  23.3  U  U VU VU  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   83.0  82.0  73.0  68.0  62.0  60.0  47.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0  26.0  21.0  -4.0  -5.0 -12.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  57.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   4.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.2%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        7.9%        3.1%        5.5%