Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60     66.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.8  42.8  39.2  32.3  23.0  16.6  21.4  21.4 VU VU  U  U  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   84.0  77.0  66.0  58.0  56.0  53.0  41.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0   0.0 -25.0  -5.0 -10.0  23.0   0.0   0.0  N  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  55.0  56.0  52.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.4%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.2%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        2.0%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        0.8%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h       14.9%        6.0%       10.4%