Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.30     60.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  20.4  21.4  24.3  30.2  36.0  34.9  33.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  10.0   5.0   1.0   6.0   9.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.9 123.6 121.5 121.5 123.6 125.7 119.4 104.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  37.0  21.0  34.0  -5.0  13.0  -4.0  27.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  53.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0   5.0   4.0   7.0   7.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        7.8%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.9%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%       10.1%        5.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.1%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%