Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162021 210927 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.00     59.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  16.6  22.8  26.3  28.3  33.8  32.7  31.2  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   4.0   5.0   8.0   9.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        121.5 121.5 121.5 123.6 127.9 119.4 108.0  94.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  -2.0  41.0  10.0   1.0   9.0  13.0  10.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  48.0  47.0  49.0  51.0  55.0  56.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   8.0  15.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.8%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        6.0%        3.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%